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Goodbye to Earl, Hello to Hermine… and Gaston?
NASA photo of Hurricane Earl on Aug 30, near Puerto Rico, with an eye that is 17 miles wide.
On Saturday, Hurricane Earl came ashore with Category 1 strength winds in Nova Scotia, Canada after dumping several inches of rain on parts of New England. Earl knocked out power to more than 220,000 homes in Nova Scotia, almost half the homes in the province. Several major highways were shut down for a few hours as a result of flooding. The only fatality directly attributable to Earl also occurred Saturday, when a man helping a friend secure a boat wound up in the water and, despite wearing a life-jacket, drowned. Overall, emergency responders and residents from North Carolina to Nova Scotia are breathing a collective sigh of relief; things could have been much worse. The general consensus from various sources including FEMA representatives, Red Cross staff, and faith-based response organizations is that Earl proved a good test of their emergency preparedness, and, thankfully, nothing more.
Things are not “all quiet” after Earl, unfortunately; a weather system that has been hovering over the far western Gulf of Mexico for several days finally developed into Tropical Storm Hermine this morning and is expected to make landfall near the Mexican-U.S. border early tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, the system formerly known as Gaston is still churning out in the Atlantic. It is possible that this system will not (re-)develop into a Tropical Depression; however, it is somewhat more likely that it will continue to get better organized and grow in strength. The big question at this point is: when? If it continues on its current path, this system could be in the Gulf this weekend. Or not. At this point, we have to wait and see.
Earl Easing Up, Still Dangerous
Hurricane Earl is presently moving north off the coast of North Carolina (roughly due east of Corolla) and slightly away from shore. Earl remains a Category 2 storm with winds around 105 mph and it is moving about 18 mph. It’s next brush with land will come late tonight as it skirts by Massachusetts. [*Update: A "skirting" by Mass. is not yet definite; Nantucket and the communities surrounding Cape Cod are still within Earl's potential path.] However, the potential for flooding from storm surge and rain remains. While the storm is not as bad as it could have been, anyone in Earl’s path should remain alert and take precautions. Along with flooding, power outages are still likely in some areas and people need to be prepared, especially with adequate food, clean water, personal medicines and other basic necessities. Even though Earl’s intensity has decreased, it remains a huge storm: in area, it is larger than the state of California, and in width it could reach from one side of Texas to the other.
A live web-cam from Nags Head is available from the Nags Head Fishing Pier.
Thankfully, Hurricane Gaston dissipated faster than it formed and is no longer a threat. Fiona continues its slow demise, a Tropical Depression in the Pacific will stay at sea, and no other systems are formed well enough to offer any substantial threats for the next 48 hours or so.
Related Articles
- Earl brings heavy rain, wind and flooding to Outer Banks (charlotte.news14.com)
- East Coast Braces for Hurricane Earl (online.wsj.com)
…And the Storm After That
Weather patterns over the Atlantic Ocean have now formed four named storm systems in 11 days. Each has had it’s genesis in roughly the same area and, as I noted over the weekend, has followed a similar (though clearly not identical) path. Hurricane Earl has moved further to the west, and will threaten the East Coast of the United States and Nova Scotia for the next 72 hours or so. Be honest: when you think of hurricanes, how often do you think of Canada? In fact, Toronto was devastated by a storm system in 1954 and Canada was hit hard by back-to-back storms in 2003. (Other storms have had glancing blows on the Canadian coastline or brought severe rain and flooding but not wrought as much damage as these three.) The strongest of these storms was Hurricane Juan, which struck Nova Scotia as a Category 2 Hurricane on Sept. 29, 2003. If there are no major changes in Earl’s path and no dramatic shifts in its intensity, then it will follow a course similar to Juan, making landfall Saturday in Nova Scotia likely as a Category 1 storm.
But that’s Saturday, and Earl still has a quite a path ahead of it. Yesterday Earl weakened from a Cat-4 to a Cat-3 before gaining strength and wind speed to return to Category 4 status. The good news is that it has shifted eastward and poses less of a threat of making landfall on the U.S. coast; Cape Cod, Massachusetts and surrounding communities are the possible exception at this time. However, the entire coastline from North Carolina through Maine is threatened – and therefore under either a Tropical Storm / Hurricane Warning or Watch. Uprooted trees and downed power lines are likely, making widespread power outages probable. The most serious danger will be flooding:
as Earl passes, it will drop heavy rainfall in places. At the same time, its winds will create tidal surges and buffet the coastline with high waves. This water will be pushed upstream along the many bays, sounds, river and creeks that drain into the Atlantic, swelling the natural storm drain systems and slowing water-run off. Making matters worse, Earl is moving rather slow, at about 18 mph. All standing water should be approached with caution; no attempt should be made to cross flooded roads. Flooding is a serious threat as even apparently slow moving waters can suddenly pick up speed and intensity.
And Earl is not the last threat out there: Fiona, thankfully, appears to be more princess than ogre (it will likely bring heavy rains to Bermuda, passing as a weakened tropical storm); but Gaston gained name recognition late yesterday and it is unclear whether it will take the same northward bend that Danielle, Earl, and Fiona all followed. This could put Gaston on a path to hit Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and other Caribbean Islands. From there, it could then shift north threatening Florida. Or Gaston could enter the Gulf, where it would have plenty of time to gain size and strength before making landfall. Please continue to pray for those who are even now being impacted by Hurricane Earl, and for all who are in harm’s way.
Related Articles
- Hurricane Earl continues on its path to Canada’s East Coast (calgaryherald.com)
- Map of Hurricane Earl: Grows to Category 4! Get Out of Eastern Coastline of North Carolina….now! (economy4abc.blogspot.com)
Earl is One to Watch
Image by thebadastronomer via Flickr
After plugging along as a Tropical Storm for four days, Hurricane Earl developed from a category 1 strength storm to a category 4 in about a day and a half. The system continued to track westward before beginning to bend north. At this moment, a best case scenario for Hurricane Earl is that it move up the East Coast without making landfall. Most current models do have Earl staying out at sea until the weekend when it could hit Nova Scotia as a much weaker storm; however, she will come in close enough to shore that coastal residents should be preparing now for high winds, heavy rains, and a possible evacuation. Those in low-lying areas upstream along rivers that empty into the Atlantic should also prepare for potential flooding. Earl’s outer bands will reach the North Carolina coast on Thursday with the eye passing Thursday night or Friday morning.
Wednesday update:
Earl is already making its presence known along the East Coast. Rip-tides are forming as a result of the waves being pushed in ahead of the storm. A mandatory evacuation has been issued for Okracoke Island, NC; similar orders are likely to come later today for other communities. Unless there is a major change in the system’s trajectory today, flooding is now an almost certainty along the North Carolina and Virgina coastline. The threat of Earl making landfall also increased overnight.
Related Articles
- Hurricane Earl strengthens to Category 4 storm (charlotte.news14.com)
- You: Earl batters Caribbean, threatens US East Coast (washingtonpost.com)
- Hurricane Earl 2010: Category 4 Hurricane Threatens U.S. Coast After Hitting Caribbean (huffingtonpost.com)
- Hurricane Earl and the Guiding Hand (beliefnet.com)
Galveston Blitz Build a United Effort
*The following report is shared via a Week of Compassion update. To sign up for these updates, visit http://www.weekofcompassion.org/
The Rev. Rebecca Hale, Week of Compassion Advisory Committee Chair, recently represented Week of Compassion at the Blitz Build in Galveston, TX. She sent us this dispatch:
In 2008, Hurricane Ike devastated many buildings and homes in Galveston, Texas. The substantial stone building of Central Christian Church (Disciples of Christ) escaped significant damage, and the members of that congregation rapidly mobilized to begin using their building as a central aid station for the area. As the congregation began opening its doors to offer compassion for its neighbors, along with other Texas congregations, Week of Compassion, Disciples Volunteering, the Southwest Region and the Coastal Plains Area of the Christian Church (Disciples) joined with them in efforts to provide relief in the forms of food, companionship, funds, clothing, and volunteer assistance.
In those very early days, members of Central Christian Church realized that their nearest Disciples neighbor, Second Christian Church (just five blocks away!), was having a very different experience. Shortly after the storm, Carl Zerweck, Director of Disciples Volunteering, a ministry of Disciples Home Missions, heard about Second Christian Church and went to take a look.
He described the damage as “devastating.” The building was almost completely destroyed and was in the process of being condemned by the city of Galveston.
Carl’s visit started a journey that ended with the dedication of the newly rebuilt church building of Second Christian Church on November 22, 2009. Volunteers from Texas and Louisiana congregations worked to gut the majority of the building in the fall of 2008. Volunteers from across the country, working with Disciples Volunteering throughout the summer and fall, rebuilt the worship and fellowship space of this congregation. During the rebuilding, First Christian Church, Texas City, TX, and Central Christian Church, Galveston, opened their doors to house and feed volunteers with the help of congregations from across the Coastal Plains Area. During the dedication, prayers of joy were offered, songs with words like “If you can’t make it through the storm/how can you say that God’s your captain?” took on an added significance, and tears fell in hope and gratitude.
The new building looks beautiful. Second Christian has a wonderful new space in which to live out its mission and ministry for many years. Many people and organizations made this happen – WoC, Reconciliation Ministry, the Coastal Plains Area, Disciples Volunteering, the Southwest Region, and scores of volunteers from across the life of our church. Maybe the most significant partnership that emerged was the relationship between the neighboring congregations of Second Christian Church and Central. One refrain echoed throughout the week: “we had lost touch with each other as sister congregations and now we have found a relationship that has the potential to sustain us both and expand our ministries.”
That was the spirit of the build: great joy at friends found and commitments made to stay in relationship with one another. There was also a deep sense of gratitude for the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ) and what can happen when we come together to care for those who are devastated by events far beyond their control.
On another note, a woman came up to me to thank Week of Compassion. Immediately after the hurricane, she received some WoC funds through her pastor. She said without those funds she did not know what they would have done. Her house was flooded, and while insurance paid for most of the repairs, her husband could not work for four weeks and they would not have had money for food or basic needs during those early days. She said she was already planning on how she would be giving an increased amount to WoC so that others could experience the relief she experienced.”
Ominous Tour
Today, I had the strange experience of leading the disaster tour during an approaching disaster. Normally conducted on Wednesdays, the disaster tour is my way of showing volunteers the past, present, and future state of recovery in different sections of New Orleans. We intentionally stop in three distinct neighborhoods to give a snapshot view of the current pace of recovery. At each stop, I share a little about how that neighborhood came to have 8 ft, 10 ft, or more of floodwater. While each tour is unique in its own way, during every tour I try to share some examples of how the characteristics of each neighborhood, including factors such as income levels, age, and race of the people who live there, have impacted the immediate response and the long-term recovery. As I said, the tour is normally done on Wednesday afternoon as a good mid-week break for everyone. However, this week Disciples Volunteers from Lexington, KY are staying at Grace Disciples of Christ Church and serving with Habitat for Humanity in Covington, LA. Habitat is now working volunteers Tuesday through Saturday and is closed on Sunday and Monday. So the volunteers chose to spend the morning tackling some important painting projects at Grace (Thank You!) and take the tour this afternoon. As it would turn out, this afternoon also marked the arrival of the outer bands of Hurricane Ida in New Orleans. By the time we arrived in the Lower Ninth Ward, the sky was dark, a light rain was beginning to fall, and wind gusts were blowing hard. As we returned across the Causeway, which, at 24 miles long, just so happens to be the world’s longest bridge, the waves on Lake Pontchartrain were kicking up. An eerie feeling crept over me as I realized that storm clouds were moving backwards (east to west instead of west to east). I grew anxious to get home before the skies really opened up. The wind is blowing now but not too strong; the rain has mostly held off: people have been on edge the last two days but it appears that we will see little from Ida around Covington. The latest updates show her status downgraded to a Tropical Storm. Even so, wind gusts and the surge a tropical storm can produce are dangerous and as the storm appears to fix on a path to (or near) Mobile, AL, our prayers go out to all those who are in Ida’s way.
Keeping an Eye on Ida
Tropical Storm Ida is picking up speed, and could regain Hurricane status by tomorrow morning. No real news for now, but here’s a pair of similar images projecting Ida’s path. The first image is relatively standard, and includes a widening cone to show the possible places Ida could stike. The second image pretends to be much more specific by placing a line in the center of the cone. I like the image because it makes it appear as if Ida will actually ricochet off the Florida pan-handle. Or maybe the Army Corps of Engineers has designed some kind of Hurricane Repellent?
Sunday, 6:00 pm – Update #1: Okay, so I’ve noticed that both the images I’ve linked to are live, meaning changing, meaning no longer the cool ricochet shot. Unfortunately, that also means Ida is expected to make landfall on the Gulf Coast somewhere between Grand Isle, LA and Mexico Beach, FL. Most projections show the storm soaking the Florida panhandle.
Ida has already caused serious destruction in El Salvador, killing 91 people with 60 still missing following floods and mudslides. She caused some travel disruptions and forced minor evacuations in Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula after forcing 5,000 people into shelters in Nicaragua. Meanwhile, Louisiana’s governor has already declared a state of emergency for the southeastern portion of the state, putting the National Guard on high alert in case they are needed.
Monday, 6:30 am – Update #2: Hurricane Ida appears to be centering on the Alabama Coast, with landfall on the Florida panhandle also possible. The outer bands are starting to reach inland, bringing early showers, and the tidal surge is noticeably increasing. The rain and the surge could present problems and are being monitored closely.
