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Goodbye to Earl, Hello to Hermine… and Gaston?
NASA photo of Hurricane Earl on Aug 30, near Puerto Rico, with an eye that is 17 miles wide.
On Saturday, Hurricane Earl came ashore with Category 1 strength winds in Nova Scotia, Canada after dumping several inches of rain on parts of New England. Earl knocked out power to more than 220,000 homes in Nova Scotia, almost half the homes in the province. Several major highways were shut down for a few hours as a result of flooding. The only fatality directly attributable to Earl also occurred Saturday, when a man helping a friend secure a boat wound up in the water and, despite wearing a life-jacket, drowned. Overall, emergency responders and residents from North Carolina to Nova Scotia are breathing a collective sigh of relief; things could have been much worse. The general consensus from various sources including FEMA representatives, Red Cross staff, and faith-based response organizations is that Earl proved a good test of their emergency preparedness, and, thankfully, nothing more.
Things are not “all quiet” after Earl, unfortunately; a weather system that has been hovering over the far western Gulf of Mexico for several days finally developed into Tropical Storm Hermine this morning and is expected to make landfall near the Mexican-U.S. border early tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, the system formerly known as Gaston is still churning out in the Atlantic. It is possible that this system will not (re-)develop into a Tropical Depression; however, it is somewhat more likely that it will continue to get better organized and grow in strength. The big question at this point is: when? If it continues on its current path, this system could be in the Gulf this weekend. Or not. At this point, we have to wait and see.
Earl Easing Up, Still Dangerous
Hurricane Earl is presently moving north off the coast of North Carolina (roughly due east of Corolla) and slightly away from shore. Earl remains a Category 2 storm with winds around 105 mph and it is moving about 18 mph. It’s next brush with land will come late tonight as it skirts by Massachusetts. [*Update: A "skirting" by Mass. is not yet definite; Nantucket and the communities surrounding Cape Cod are still within Earl's potential path.] However, the potential for flooding from storm surge and rain remains. While the storm is not as bad as it could have been, anyone in Earl’s path should remain alert and take precautions. Along with flooding, power outages are still likely in some areas and people need to be prepared, especially with adequate food, clean water, personal medicines and other basic necessities. Even though Earl’s intensity has decreased, it remains a huge storm: in area, it is larger than the state of California, and in width it could reach from one side of Texas to the other.
A live web-cam from Nags Head is available from the Nags Head Fishing Pier.
Thankfully, Hurricane Gaston dissipated faster than it formed and is no longer a threat. Fiona continues its slow demise, a Tropical Depression in the Pacific will stay at sea, and no other systems are formed well enough to offer any substantial threats for the next 48 hours or so.
Related Articles
- Earl brings heavy rain, wind and flooding to Outer Banks (charlotte.news14.com)
- East Coast Braces for Hurricane Earl (online.wsj.com)
…And the Storm After That
Weather patterns over the Atlantic Ocean have now formed four named storm systems in 11 days. Each has had it’s genesis in roughly the same area and, as I noted over the weekend, has followed a similar (though clearly not identical) path. Hurricane Earl has moved further to the west, and will threaten the East Coast of the United States and Nova Scotia for the next 72 hours or so. Be honest: when you think of hurricanes, how often do you think of Canada? In fact, Toronto was devastated by a storm system in 1954 and Canada was hit hard by back-to-back storms in 2003. (Other storms have had glancing blows on the Canadian coastline or brought severe rain and flooding but not wrought as much damage as these three.) The strongest of these storms was Hurricane Juan, which struck Nova Scotia as a Category 2 Hurricane on Sept. 29, 2003. If there are no major changes in Earl’s path and no dramatic shifts in its intensity, then it will follow a course similar to Juan, making landfall Saturday in Nova Scotia likely as a Category 1 storm.
But that’s Saturday, and Earl still has a quite a path ahead of it. Yesterday Earl weakened from a Cat-4 to a Cat-3 before gaining strength and wind speed to return to Category 4 status. The good news is that it has shifted eastward and poses less of a threat of making landfall on the U.S. coast; Cape Cod, Massachusetts and surrounding communities are the possible exception at this time. However, the entire coastline from North Carolina through Maine is threatened – and therefore under either a Tropical Storm / Hurricane Warning or Watch. Uprooted trees and downed power lines are likely, making widespread power outages probable. The most serious danger will be flooding:
as Earl passes, it will drop heavy rainfall in places. At the same time, its winds will create tidal surges and buffet the coastline with high waves. This water will be pushed upstream along the many bays, sounds, river and creeks that drain into the Atlantic, swelling the natural storm drain systems and slowing water-run off. Making matters worse, Earl is moving rather slow, at about 18 mph. All standing water should be approached with caution; no attempt should be made to cross flooded roads. Flooding is a serious threat as even apparently slow moving waters can suddenly pick up speed and intensity.
And Earl is not the last threat out there: Fiona, thankfully, appears to be more princess than ogre (it will likely bring heavy rains to Bermuda, passing as a weakened tropical storm); but Gaston gained name recognition late yesterday and it is unclear whether it will take the same northward bend that Danielle, Earl, and Fiona all followed. This could put Gaston on a path to hit Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and other Caribbean Islands. From there, it could then shift north threatening Florida. Or Gaston could enter the Gulf, where it would have plenty of time to gain size and strength before making landfall. Please continue to pray for those who are even now being impacted by Hurricane Earl, and for all who are in harm’s way.
Related Articles
- Hurricane Earl continues on its path to Canada’s East Coast (calgaryherald.com)
- Map of Hurricane Earl: Grows to Category 4! Get Out of Eastern Coastline of North Carolina….now! (economy4abc.blogspot.com)
Earl is One to Watch
Image by thebadastronomer via Flickr
After plugging along as a Tropical Storm for four days, Hurricane Earl developed from a category 1 strength storm to a category 4 in about a day and a half. The system continued to track westward before beginning to bend north. At this moment, a best case scenario for Hurricane Earl is that it move up the East Coast without making landfall. Most current models do have Earl staying out at sea until the weekend when it could hit Nova Scotia as a much weaker storm; however, she will come in close enough to shore that coastal residents should be preparing now for high winds, heavy rains, and a possible evacuation. Those in low-lying areas upstream along rivers that empty into the Atlantic should also prepare for potential flooding. Earl’s outer bands will reach the North Carolina coast on Thursday with the eye passing Thursday night or Friday morning.
Wednesday update:
Earl is already making its presence known along the East Coast. Rip-tides are forming as a result of the waves being pushed in ahead of the storm. A mandatory evacuation has been issued for Okracoke Island, NC; similar orders are likely to come later today for other communities. Unless there is a major change in the system’s trajectory today, flooding is now an almost certainty along the North Carolina and Virgina coastline. The threat of Earl making landfall also increased overnight.
Related Articles
- Hurricane Earl strengthens to Category 4 storm (charlotte.news14.com)
- You: Earl batters Caribbean, threatens US East Coast (washingtonpost.com)
- Hurricane Earl 2010: Category 4 Hurricane Threatens U.S. Coast After Hitting Caribbean (huffingtonpost.com)
- Hurricane Earl and the Guiding Hand (beliefnet.com)
The Atlantic Gets Hot and Stormy
Just two weeks ago, I heard media reports, and individuals, commenting on the relative calm this hurricane season.These comments didn’t come from people who live on the Gulf Coast, mind you, and they weren’t carried by local news sources; it seemed to be more the national perspective. In an effort to correct that misguided opinion, one local news channel reported that, historically, more than 80% of all hurricanes and 92% of all named storms that have hit the U.S. mainland have occurred after that particular date.
Here we are two weeks later, and things look very different. This seemingly sudden change comes as no surprise to those whose daily ritual, from June to November, includes checking on the latest developments in the Atlantic and the Gulf (or consciously, deliberately avoiding such information). What is surprising is to see three systems develop back-to-back-to-back, starting in the same area of the Atlantic. Danielle has followed a course keeping it far from shore. Earl appears to be following a similar, but likely more westerly, path. If the third system waiting “in the hole” develops and continues the westward trend, the East Coast of the United States could be in trouble. Watching these storm projections is evidence that a hurricane hitting New England is never outside the realm of possibility. As bad as things were in New Orleans and across the Gulf Coast five years ago, imagine a storm similar to Hurricane Katrina or Rita slamming into New York City. Then again, there’s nothing to say that this system has to follow a similar path: it could just as easily enter the Gulf of Mexico, or sputter out altogether.
image via National Hurricane Center
Given the unpredictable nature and uncertain path of these storms – as with any disaster – the most important step any of us can take is to be prepared before disaster strikes. And don’t assume that it can’t happen to you: a couple of days after Hurricane Ike slammed into Galveston, TX, the storm was causing widespread damage and power outages across Ohio and north into Canada. Now is the time to plan for a disaster. Prepare a disaster kit. And pray for calmer winds, in life as well as over our oceans.
Related Articles
- Three Atlantic storms on watch, Gulf of Mexico safe (reuters.com)
- Tropical Storm Earl Joins Atlantic Hurricane Danielle (businessweek.com)
- Actual Hurricane Season Finally Underway [Greg Laden's Blog] (scienceblogs.com)
